Pengaruh Pengeluaran Pemerintah dan Investasi Terhadap PDRB HK di Provinsi Sumatera Utara: Penelitian

Monika Caramoy Sitorus; Selpiana Selpiana; Rouli Pranatalia Simnjuntak; William Barker Hutabarat; Muhammad Alhasymi Matondang

doi:10.31004/jerkin.v4i3.4595

Authors

Monika Caramoy Sitorus Universitas Negeri Medan
Selpiana Selpiana Universitas Negeri Medan
Rouli Pranatalia Simnjuntak Universitas Negeri Medan
William Barker Hutabarat Universitas Negeri Medan
Muhammad Alhasymi Matondang Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31004/jerkin.v4i3.4595

Keywords:

Government Expenditure, Investment, Constant Price GRDP, Economic Growth, North Sumatra

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of government expenditure and investment on the Constant Price Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) in North Sumatra Province. A quantitative approach with multiple linear regression design was used, with government expenditure and investment as independent variables and PDRB as the dependent variable. Secondary data from 2010 to 2024 were collected from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra Province. The analysis was conducted using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation, including classical assumption tests, partial (t) and simultaneous (F) significance tests, and determination coefficient (R²). The results indicate that government expenditure has a positive and significant effect on PDRB, investment also exerts a positive and significant effect, and together both variables have a significant simultaneous impact on regional economic growth. These findings emphasize the importance of coordinating fiscal policies and investment strategies to promote sustainable economic growth. The study provides empirical evidence that can serve as a reference for regional governments in designing more efficient and effective development policies and budget allocation to enhance production capacity and public welfare.

References

Absorption, L., & Growth, E. (2025). Jdess 04.01.2025. 4(1), 221–237.

Belanja, K., & Indonesia, P. (2020). Hasil yang Lebih Baik.

Corsetti, G., Meier, A., & Müller, G. J. (n.d.). What Determines Government Spending Multipliers ?

Fournier, J. (n.d.). The Positive Effect of Public Investment on Potential Growth. 1347.

Indonesia, P. (2023). PwC Indonesia Economic Update Second Quarter 2023 Foreword.

Influence, T. H. E., Investment, O. F., Economic, O. N., In, G., & Perspectives, L. (2025). Paraplu journal. 2(1), 319–327.

Investasi, P., Kerja, T., & Ekspor, D. A. N. (2020). Pengaruh investasi, tenaga kerja dan ekspor terhadap pdrb di provinsi sumatera utara periode 2017-2019. 4(3), 1711–1724.

Khakim, R. (2020). Pengaruh Investasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Serta Kesejahteraan Masyarakat di Provinsi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Dan Kewirausahaan, 3(1), 29–50. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/10500-ID-pengaruh-investasi-terhadap-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-dan-penyerapan-tenaga-kerja-sert.pdf

Miyamoto, H., Baum, A., Gueorguiev, N., & Walker, S. (2016). Growth Impact of Public Investment and the Role of Infrastructure Governance. 2008, 15–29.

Putu, N., Wianda, A., & Yudha, I. M. E. K. (2023). Analysis of the Effect of Government Expenditure in the General Services Sector , Infrastructure Sector , and Domestic Investment on Economic Growth in Bali Province. 1990.

Siregar, F. A., Suharianto, J., Putri, D. N., & Putri, A. (2024). Pengaruh Belanja Pemerintah & Investasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Periode 2004 – 2023. 4, 7256–7266.

Suprijati, J., Budiarti, W., Ramdhan, D. S., Almughni, A. A., Standsyah, R. E., & Mustofa, A. (2025). So in implementing development , Creative Commons. 17(1), 31–49. https://doi.org/10.26740/jaj.v17n1.p.31-49

Twycross, A. (2004). Research design: qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods approachesResearch design: qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods approaches Creswell John W Sage 320 £29 0761924426 0761924426. Nurse Researcher, 12(1), 82–83. https://doi.org/10.7748/nr.12.1.82.s2